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做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易

  • 文章作者 歐新华
  • 发布日期 8月 12, 2022
做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易

【Economic Perspectives】China inflation in Apr – Moderated inflation echoing weak demand

The NBS released inflation figures on 12 May. CPI growth moderated in Apr to 3.3% YoY (0.4ppt lower than consensus estimate) while PPI 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 decline enlarged to 3.1% YoY (vs. consensus estimate at -2.5%). Excluding food items, inflation seemed muted 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 as a result of slack demand amid COVID-19. Going forward, we continue to expect mild inflation outlook – 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 CPI growth will gradually edge down and PPI growth is likely to remain in the negative territory.

  • CPI growth decelerated to 3.3% YoY in Apr, from 4.3% in Mar and documented MoM decline of 0.9% YoY. This was primarily driven by decelerating food prices. Among the non-food items, YoY price 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 decline of transportation and commutations enlarged as a result of gasoline price plunge and lackluster travel demand.
    做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易
  • Food prices posted MoM decline for two consecutive months (-2.7%/-2.1% in Mar/Apr). Price growth of meat 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 and vegetables both retreated phenomenally from the Feb peak. Price growth of eggs and fruit also decelerated in 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 Apr due to ample supply. Dairy products, however, exhibited strengthening prices possibly thanks to rising demand for protein.
  • Pork price had peaked out. CPI pork price rose 96.9% YoY and on MoM basis, 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 it declined 6.9%/7.6% in Mar/Apr since its peak in Feb. We think pork price had already peaked out despite within year volatilities because 1) pork supply is recovering judging from gradually regaining sow balance, and 2) demand does not appear to be strong due to COVID-19 and consumer’s adapting habits to menus that are less pork-dependent.
  • PPI decline enlarged to 3.1% YoY in Apr, reflecting weak demand global 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 wide. Major industries witnessed plunging PPI growth, including oil and natural gas extraction (-51.4% YoY, down 29.7ppt from Mar), procession of oil, coal and other fuel (-19.8% YoY, down 9.2ppt from Mar), chemical products manufacturing (-8.3% YoY, down 3ppt from Mar), ferrous metal processing (-7.3% YoY, down 3.4ppt from Mar), etc.
  • Mild inflation outlook and implications on monetary policy. Excluding food items, inflation 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 seemed muted. This primarily reflected demand-side weakness. Although COVID-19 is gradually being contained, the negative impact of lockdowns 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 and quarantine measures on economic growth could loom for some time, weighing on global demand. We may well continue to see moderated inflation in the upcoming months, which is not likely to pose constraint for monetary easing. Nevertheless, we think China’s monetary policies are directed towards targeted and structural easing rather than broad measures.做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易

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【Company Research】Goldwind - A (002202 CH) – Struggling at cycle bottom

Goldwind posted disappointed FY19 results, as net profit read only RMB2,109mn 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 down 32.9% YoY. We think the Company was struggling in a booming wind installation market, which led to a mismatch between tightened material supply with increasing costs and squeezing ASP due to pricing competition. WTG GPM showed improvement in 2H19, raising FY19 GPM to 12.5% from an extreme low of 11.3% in 1H19, but WTG warranty provision rate had a substantial increase of 2.3ppt YoY. Mgmt. expects GPM to increase 2-3ppt on improving ASP in 2020. As per our calculation, however, WTG GPM need to rebound to at least 15.7% to drive earnings growth. We cut FY20/21E EPS by 38.1/4.1%, and 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 cut TP by 37.9% to RMB10.1. Downgrade to HOLD.

  • Strong WTG shipment enhanced leading position. WTG shipment reached 8,171MW, far better than our estimate, while GPM suffered another squeeze by 6.3ppt to 12.5%. Margin squeeze was mainly driven by 6.6% decline in ASP, and we estimate unit costs exhibited slight increase of 0.6%. According to mgmt., GWD sustained its leading market share of 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 28.0% in China, but strong sales didn’t help the Company to earn more. Net profit was RMB2,109mn,down 32.9%, first time decline from 2012.
  • Heads up for warranty provision. We’ve observe 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 a significant growth in selling and distribution expense in FY19, driven by substantial increase in warranty provision ratio. Mgmt. explained it was due to precaution treatment as GWD launched more new WTG models for both onshore 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 and offshore market. As GWD will have WTG sales shift towards new 2.5/3.0s series and deliver more offshore turbine, we expect the provision rate to remain high and to cause earnings pressures (see Figure 2 for provision details).
  • 15.7% WTG GPM a critical line. We think WTG GPM at 15.7% is a critical line to cover major expenses, including 1) selling and distribution at 7.7%; 2) admin expenses at 6.5%; and 3) other expense at 1.5%. Mgmt. expects GPM to improve 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 by 2-3ppt in 2020 as ASP pressure relieves from low price order. However, due to thrilling downstream demand and supply disruption caused by COVID-19, we remain cautious on WTG margin improvement. Other than that, we think GWD is also facing product delivery risks due to potential shutdown of global supply chain.
  • Cycle bottom 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 may last long in 2020/21. By launching state of the art technologies and comprehensive customer services, we do think GWD is on track to a recovery, but is now facing challenge and dragged to a slower pace. We cut FY20/21E EPS by 38.1/4.1%. Our TP is trimmed by 37.9% to RMB10.1 based on 15.5x FY20 P/E. Downgrade to HOLD.

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【Company Research】Goldwind - H (2208 HK) – Strong 1Q20 results; but headwind remains

GWD delivered 848MW WTG sales in 1Q20 amid impacts from COVID-19, down 8.7% YoY. The Company faced continued GPM squeezed during the first quarter as operating expenses increased outpace revenue growth. GWD managed to release earnings growth, however, through completion of selling several wind farm projects. Looking ahead, we think headwind remains, 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 and we think COVID-19 may bring more uncertainties from the supply chain, as some downstream developers expressed wind 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 blade may subject to delay for 1-2 months. Maintain HOLD.

  • 1Q20 earnings surged 291.5% to RMB895mn. Sales revenue recorded a 1.3% YoY increase to RMB5,467mn, while operating costs expand more rapidly at 8.4% YoY to RMB4,290mn, which led to a YoY GPM squeeze of 5.1ppt. The Company completed transactions of selling 49% shares of several wind farm projects, which helped boost investment income by 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 669% to RMB1,120mn. Overall, GWD realized net profit of RMB895mn, up 291.5% and accounting for 32.5% of our FY20E forecasts.
  • WTG sales was 848MW in 1Q20, down 8.7% YoY. We 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 think GWD’s 1Q20 WTG delivery was satisfactory given disruption caused by COVID-19. Mgmt. maintained annual shipment target at 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 12-14GW unchanged and disclosed there were still 4.3GW WTG tenders in 1Q20, of which 84% required to delivery within 2020. Given relatively a slow start of WTG sales, and potential disruption of supply chain mainly from wind blade material import, we think it would be challenging for GWD to fulfill the sales target.
  • Selling and distribution costs still a concern. The expenses increased 22.7% YoY during 1Q20, substantially 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 faster than revenue growth. We had observed the expenses expanded quick associated with increasing warranty provision with several new WTG models in FY19. Mgmt. explained the costs was not distributed evenly with WTG sales, and some 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 provision was explicitly incurred during 1Q20. In 2020, we think the costs will still be one of the key concerns of the market.
  • GPM to see improvements in 2Q20. Mgmt. expects WTG shipments to 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 accelerate in 2Q20, with improvements in both order structure and several costs saving measures in the supply chain. GWD 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 expected to have GPM to recover in 2Q20, implying WTG GPM had bottomed out.
  • Maintained HOLD.做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 GWD’s share price had rebounded 13.6% since our previous update. Given the headwinds in 2020 and uncertainties in 2021 and beyond, we remain conservative on the Company. At 13.0x FY20E PER, we think GWD is fairly valued. Maintain HOLD with TP unchanged at HK$7.70.

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