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外汇短线交易策略

期貨交易 trader

【Company Research】Yum China (YUMC US) – Digital, delivery, Pizza Hut reform driven growth

Initiate BUY on YUMC, as we forecast 14% NP CAGR in FY19-22E (even under drags by COVID-19) vs 13% in FY16-19, driven by: 1) 期貨交易 trader near term favorable food, staff and rental costs, 2) more new stores and better locations, 3) various longer-term benefits yield from digital upgrades and 4) Pizza Hut reforms. Our TP of US$ 72.61 is based on 36x FY21E P/E, 5% discount to leading China peer’s avg. but 16% higher than Int’l peers’ avg.. YUMC’s valuation is attractive at 29x FY21E P/E and 3.3x PEG, well below HDL’s 51x and 5.9x, JMJ’s 45x and 9.1x.

  • Arestaurant empire with leading product, digital and delivery quality. Yum China (“YUMC”) 期貨交易 trader is the largest restaurant group in China by sales in 2019 (~1.4% market share). It owned 9,200 期貨交易 trader restaurants in China (6,534 KFC/ 2,281 Pizza Hut/ 385 others) and recorded USD 8.8bn sales and USD 700mn NP in FY19.
  • Multiplenear-term catalysts and too conservative consensus. We expect SSSG to turn positive to 14% YoY in FY21E, thanks to: 1) consumption recovery, 2) low base, 3) favourable food and staff cost trends, 4) superior digital and delivery upgrades and 5) better store locations and rental terms. More importantly, we believe our forecast is prudent while consensus is too conservative (CMBI’s FY21E sales is only 10-13% higher vs FY19 and sales per average store for KFC/ Pizza Hut are just 3% lower / 1% higher vs FY19).
  • Digital and delivery upgrades to boost frequency and ASP. YUMC has vast customer base for big 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader data. We expect the growth drivers to be: 1) customer acquisitions by better user experience and convenience, 2) 期貨交易 trader increase in purchasing frequency from more members, 3) ASP increases thru more upselling and 4) brands’ cross-selling through membership 期貨交易 trader reward system.
  • Industry leading product quality and Pizza Hut reform. Backed by leading customer satisfaction rating among fried chicken brands, KFC should gain market shares in all tier cities in China. We also see Pizza Hut’s reform successful (menu innovations, return of value for money, stores revamps, etc. since 2017) and yield an impressive 期貨交易 trader 13% restaurant OP CAGR in FY19-22E.
  • We forecast 8% sales and 14% NP att. CAGR in FY20E-22E. Key drivers are: 1) delivery, 2) increases in members and purchasing frequency, 3) easing food, staff and rental costs, and 4) Pizza Hut’s reform and operating leverage.
  • Initiate BUY with TP of US$ 72.61, based on 36x FY21E P/E, 5% discount to leading peers’ average. We find YUMC attractive given a 14% NP CAGR in FY19-22E (impressive enough given drags from COVID-19 and vs 14% in FY17-19). It is trading at 期貨交易 trader 29x FY21E P/E and 3.3x PEG (based on FY20E P/E and FY19-22E NP CAGR), vs HDL’s 53x 期貨交易 trader and 6.2x, JMJ’s 47x and 9.7x.

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【Company Research】Man Wah (1999 HK) – Robust E-commerce growth and falling costs

We believe a strong China sales will offset drags from exports in FY21E, esp. when: 1) E-commerce growth remain robust, 2) China margin is higher than overseas and 3) raw material costs turn more favorable. Hence we are positive on 期貨交易 trader Man Wah (“MW”) ’s outlook in FY21E-22E, and current valuation of 10x FY3/22E P/E (5 years avg. at 12x) 期貨交易 trader and 5% FY3/22E yield is attractive in our view.

  • FY3/20 net profit beat by 7%, thanks to better margins from property sales and dividend surprise. Man Wah’s FY19 net profit rose by 20% YoY to RMB 16.4 bn, beating BBG’s est. by 7%, mainly supported by higher-than-expected GP margin from its property sales 期貨交易 trader at 40% (vs consensus est. of 32%), while payout ratio also surged to 44% (vs consensus est. of 34%).
  • China sales speeded up in 2H20 even with COVID-19, hence we are optimistic on its FY21E outlook. China sales growth (ex-property) accelerated to 13% YoY in 2H20 from 12% YoY in 1H20, even with 期貨交易 trader drag of COVID-19 in Feb-Mar 2020 (flattish growth was registered in Jan-Mar 2020, according to management). It implied a very strong momentum, thanks to efforts such as more live-streaming promotions. By channel, E-commerce/ offline sales grew by 83%/ 9% YoY in FY20, with ~10% store count growth. For FY21E, we are optimistic that MW’s China sales growth (ex-property) will sustain at a rather rapid rate (est. ~24%), driven by 50%+ e-commerce growth and ~150 期貨交易 trader new stores (~6% YoY growth). Noted sales trend in Apr 2020 has resumed to nearly normal, according to management.期貨交易 trader
  • Exports business is highly likely to decline in FY21E. Decline of US sales narrowed to just 7% 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader YoY in 2H20, vs 23% drop in 1H20, thanks to the efforts of capacity shift from China to 期貨交易 trader Vietnam. However, due to COVID-19, both US and EU retail sales slumped in Mar-Apr 2020, and may stay weak for a while. Hence we would not be surprised to see order cancellations or suspensions for MW in 1H21E. For FY21E, we are expecting its North Americas/ Europe & others/ Home Group sales to fall by 20%/ 13%/ 20%.
  • Fortunately, GP margin can be a bright spot. More importantly, we find the GP 期貨交易 trader margin to be a strong support for MW’s earning in FY21E due to the favorable trend, driven by: 1) 期貨交易 trader better region mix, China sales has a higher margin and 2) various raw materials, such as metal, chemicals, packing 期貨交易 trader paper and even leather, are all falling in FY21, as oil prices trend down.
  • Potential upgrade in earnings plus anundemanding valuation. We believe the consensus numbers may be revised up after the earnings beat, supported 期貨交易 trader by: 1) more resilient China sales and 2) highly favorable raw material trend. According to BBG’s est. the counter is trading at 10x FY20E P/E (vs 5 years avg. of 12x) and 5% yield, fairly attractive, in our view.

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바이비트(期貨交易 trader bybit) 수익률 계산하는 방법

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암호화폐 거래 시에 정확한 매수, 매도 타이밍을 잡는 것도 중요하지만, 보다 생산적이고 높은 수익을 창출하기 위해서는 정확하고 빠른 손익 계산을 하는 것도 매우 중요한 것 중에 하나 입니다. 이번 시간에는 바이비트의 손익계산 방법에 대해 간략히 알아보겠습니다.

바이비트의 무기한 계약은 역계약 방식이기 때문에 다음과 같이 평균진입가격을 계산합니다.

평균 진입가격 = 총 계약수량/계약의 총 BTC가치

계약의 총 BTC가치 = [(수량1/가격1) + (수량2/가격2) + (수량3/가격3). ]

예를 들어 8000USD와 9000USD의 시점에서 BTCUSD 50개를 무기한 계약으로 구매했다고 가정해 보겠습니다.

계약의 총 BTC가치 = (50/8000) + (50/9000) = 0.01180555

평균 진입가격은 "100/0.01180555 = 8470.期貨交易 trader 58 USD"로 계산할 수 있습니다.

롱포지션 실현된 손익의 계산방법

실현된 손익 = 계약수량 X (1/평균 진입가격 - 1/평균 청산가격)

예를 들어 5,000USD 의 가격으로 BTCUSD를 4,000개 판매했는데, 가격이 5,100 USD가 되었다고 가정해 보겠습니다.

실현된 손익은 "4,000 x(1 / 5,000 - 1 / 5,100)= 0.0156 BTC"로 계산할 수 있습니다.期貨交易 trader

숏포지션 실현된 손익의 계산방법

실현된 손익 = 계약수량 X (1/평균 진입가격 - 1/평균 청산가격)

예를들어 설명해 보겠습니다. 5,000USD의 가격으로 BTCUSD 4,000개를 판매하고 후에 가격이 5,000USD가 되었다고 가정해 보겠습니다.

실현된 손익은 " 4,000 x(1 / 5,期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader 100 - 1 / 5,000) = (-0.0156 BTC) "로 계산할 수 있습니다.

포지션 구역에서 일일 실현 손익은 다음과 같은 의미로 해석할 수 있습니다.

- 시장가(지불), 지정가(환급)에 대한 수수료가 포함

- 8시간마다 펀딩비용을 획득 期貨交易 trader 또는 지불한 금액

아울러, 바이비트는 매일 09:00(한국시간 기준)에 일일 실현 손익을 자동으로 리셋하고 있습니다.

미실현 손익은 거래소 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader 가격을 통해 결정됩니다. 트레이더는 자산현황을 이용하여 실현 또는 미실현 손익을 구분하여 확인할 수 있는데요. 마우스를 미실현 손익에 갖다 대면 시장 평균가격으로 계산된 미실현 손익을 확인할 수 있습니다.

롱포지션에서 거래자가 5,000 USD로 BTCUSD를 4,000개 구매하고, 거래서 가격이 5,500 USD로 올랐다고 가정해 보겠습니다.

미실현 손익은 " 4,000 x (1/5,000 – 1/5,500) = 期貨交易 trader 0.07272727 BTC "로 계산할 수 있습니다.

숏포지션에서 트레어디가 5,000 USD로 BTCUSD를 4,000개 판매하고 거래서 가격이 4,期貨交易 trader 500USD로 하락했다고 가정해 보겠습니다.

여기서 미실현 손익은 " 4,000 x (1/4,500 – 1/5,000) = 0.08888889 BTC " 로 계산할 수 있습니다.

포지션에서 미실현 손익의 %의 의미는 포지션 증거금에 대비한 수익률을 말하며, 포지션의 실제 수익률과는 차이를 期貨交易 trader 보이는게 일반적입니다.

【公司研究】 榮威國際 (3358 HK) – 低基數協助公司重拾增長

Summary. Maintain BUY and lifted TP to HK$ 4.20. Thanks 期貨交易 trader to 1) faster growth in 2H19E, 2) limited impact from trade war and 3) excellent risk reward, we 期貨交易 trader see chance of re-rating. It trades at 8.5x FY19E P/E but with a 28% 3 years NP CAGR.期貨交易 trader

  • 1H19 net profit inline. Bestway’s net profit rose by 24% YoY to USD 44mn, accounting for 期貨交易 trader 81%/70% of CMBI/ BBG’s FY19E estimates (vs 2 years avg. of 78%), roughly inline. But we are glad that loss from FX hedging contacts was lower than expected. 15% sales growth was driven by 22%/ 8%/ -28%/ 11% for Europe/ North America/ China/ Rest of the world, or 25%/ 7%/ 7%/ 5% for Pools & Spas/ 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader Recreation/ Sporting goods/ Camping products.
  • A better 2H19E ahead, thanks to less FX hedging losses and GP 期貨交易 trader margin expansion. Firstly, the Company guided a 15%+ sales growth in FY19E, implying a faster growth in 2H19E, aided by pickups in North America and China market (1H19E water sports sales was dragged by bad weather). Secondly, 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader GP margin shall improve, due to RMB depreciation (-3% YoY in Aug 2019) and potential lower input prices 期貨交易 trader from more localized raw material supply. Thirdly, thanks to a much lower FX hedging loss (~ USD 20mn one off drag in 2H18), we expect NP to jump by 96%/ 33% in 2H19E/ FY19E.
  • Impact from 期貨交易 trader trade war is limited since retailers are well prepared. Even though more tariffs will be charged when exporting to the US market, from only ~3% of US sales to ~50% starting from Sep 2019, but the 期貨交易 trader impact should not be material, because 1) Bestway is not affected as prices were already set in the past trade fairs, and 2) retailers had already adapted by raising retail prices since late 2018, another round of price increase is also likely.
  • Vietnam expansion begins. The Company began its Vietnam expansion. Total capex of 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader the 1st phase is ~USD 15mn for next 3 years, and is targeted to generate ~USD 40mn revenue. Operation 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader 期貨交易 trader will commence in Feb 2020, with ~800 workers. Since Bestway is one of first key manufacturers in the sector to move out of China, we expect it to gain more market shares and enjoy a higher bargaining power over its customers in near future.
  • Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$ 4.20. We maintain BUY and lift TP to HK$ 4.20, based on 10x FY19E P/E (unchanged). The counter is trading at 8.5x/ 6.7x FY19E/ 20E P/E and we believe its risk reward is excellent, given 3-year NP/ adjusted NP CAGR of 28%/ 13%. We fine-tuned our FY19E/ 20E/ 21E EPS estimates by +5.8%/ -1.5%/ -1.6%.

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